On 24 December 2025 the Nile Post walked through downtown Kampala and found Kikuubo shops fully stocked with Christmas goods while customer numbers stayed low. Traders worried that merchandise would go unsold; the hawkers' chairperson said shoppers were mostly comparing prices before buying. Transport operators, by contrast, could not meet demand, with bus fares up by at least UGX 10,000. That is the pattern to plan around for December 2026: people still travel and still eat, but discretionary retail is decided late and on price.
What actually sells in November and December
The Kampala City Traders Association told the Daily Monitor in December 2024 which categories lift in the festive weeks: textiles and garments, footwear, and car sales, with food demand rising for matooke, rice, juices and liquors. The same report quoted an economist attributing weak sales to stagnant incomes and a habit of last-minute shopping.
Two lessons follow. First, the categories that move are not a mystery, so the question is quantity, not selection. Second, the buying window is short and late, which punishes shops that have tied up cash in October stock and rewards shops that can top up quickly in the third week of December.
New excise rates change the cost of festive staples
The 2026 tax amendments took effect on 1 July 2026 and several of them land on festive shopping lists. The EY summary of the Acts lists excise duty on cooking oil rising from UGX 200 to UGX 400 per litre, sugar from UGX 100 to UGX 200 per kilogram, and imported spirits under 80 percent alcohol from UGX 1,700 to UGX 3,500 per litre (or 80 percent, whichever is higher). Fuel excise rose by UGX 200 per litre on both petrol and diesel, which feeds into transport costs for everything you buy and sell.
For a retailer this means last December's cost prices are not a guide. Re-cost every festive line from your most recent supplier invoice before setting the shelf price, and watch margin by item rather than by category: the cooking oil that was a loss-leader may now be a loss.
Buy in two or three lots, not one
The traders who struggled last year had bought once, early, and in bulk. A safer plan for 2026:
- Late October: order the slow, non-perishable lines (decorations, gift packaging, garments in standard sizes) at pre-season prices.
- Late November: order food staples and drinks against your own December 2025 sales by item, not the supplier's suggested order.
- Around 15 December: a short, fast top-up of whatever is actually selling, using live stock figures rather than a feeling about the shop floor.
This only works if you know, on any morning, what you have and what sold yesterday. A stock take on 1 December and daily sales by item through the month are the minimum.
Price for comparison shoppers
The hawkers' chairperson's observation that customers compare before buying should shape how you display. Put the price on the shelf, bundle where a bundle is genuinely cheaper, and keep a visible fast lane for cash and mobile money so the sale completes before the customer walks on to the next shop.
Cash, float and staff
Fares and transport demand jump in the week before Christmas, which means your own deliveries will be slower and dearer. Confirm delivery dates with suppliers in writing, hold a little more float for a surge in small cash sales, and roster staff for the last ten days rather than spreading them evenly across the month.
After Boxing Day
The week between Christmas and New Year is when unsold festive stock becomes a problem. Decide the markdown rule in advance (for example, 20 percent off decorations from 27 December) so the shop clears space for the January school rush instead of carrying boxes into February.
Sources
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